Fantasy Football 2012: The Draft Day Value of Colts QB Andrew Luck

Is Andrew Luck’s draft day value increasing?  Definitely.  Is it increasing enough that we can trust him to contribute this year?  Not so fast my friend.

We’ve spent a lot of time breaking down player information and even building programs to give you all of the tools you need to unleash your inner fantasy greatness.  The selection of your quarterback is a critical one and the gameplan for backup quarterback (check out Greg’s backup QB article) is an important one as well.

Rarely are you ever going to want to trust a rookie QB as your starter.  Cam Newton is the obvious exception, especially since it was just last year and fresh in our minds.  And, truly, Newton was not drafted as a starter last year either.  You shouldn’t be looking at Luck as your starter this year either.

However, he’s looked better than expected so far in the pre-season.  Last night he was 16-25 for 175 yards.  He did have two interceptions and a QB Rating of only 51.3, but there was a lot to like with Luck in this game.  He even rushed for a TD in leading his team back from down 14-0 to take a 17-14 halftime lead.  (en route to an eventual victory)

The problem with Luck is that he isn’t a reliable option at QB since he’s a rookie, so he’s not the ideal QB2.  Often in fantasy you want your QB2 to be a lot like your real-life team would like to have in their backup QB.  You want a guy who can step in for the starter in case of an injury and perform at an acceptable level.  You want someone who wont’ hurt you in case of emergency.  Luck is ranked around #19 or #20, so he’s a low-end QB2 option.

Personally, I’d rather have a Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer but if you find yourself with the option between Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck… I’d roll the dice with Luck.  There is upside there and it will be fun to watch him develop over the next few years.  I would project that he should still be available to you in the 13th round of your draft so he makes a good backup to one of the studs that you would draft in the first two rounds (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford, maybe Newton.)

Best of luck to you this year in your draft prep.  And remember, we have a lot more to share with you… Please check here to see how you can unleash your inner fantasy rockstar.


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