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Fantasy Football Strategy Tips and NFL Analysis

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    Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

There is no question that at times this seasonGreen Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb has been a disappointment

After a dominating fantasy season a year agoCobb has been pretty pedestrian in 2015. His yardage numbers and reception numbersare both decidedly down this season. One positiveis that he does have six touchdowns which isn't bad for a receiverbut he is not the high-end wide out many fantasy owners thought they were getting.

Yet as I have said beforethe thing about fantasy football is that you need to be flexible. Just because Cobb has struggled before doesn't mean that he will now. In factI believe he is going to have a great game this week and here's why:

Mike McCarthy is calling the plays again for the Packers and last week against the Cowboys he made a concerted effort to get the ball into Cobb's hands.

McCarthy knows that Cobb is his best pass-catcher and that if the Packers are going to be explosive offensively Cobb needs to be a part of that

The thing I liked about what McCarthy did is that he put Cobb back in the slot almost exclusively. He's not a great outside receiver -- he's just not. But he is outstanding in the slot and that's where he can dominate.

Cobb doesn't have a great matchup this week. The Raiders are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers and they have only surrendered seven touchdownswhich is actually fourth-best in the league.

But Cobb doesn't necessarily have to score a touchdown to get you points. If you have him in a PPR league he could easily get 20 points -- 10 receptions for 100 yards. He should also get a few carries out of the backfield but he hasn't scored in a few weeks so he's kinda due

All I'm saying is that if you own Cobb he should be in your lineup. I've just got a good feeling about him

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Week 15 already starts tonight with Tampa Bay vs the Rams     Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The first thing I thought before writing this was: I can't believe we have already reached Week 15 of the NFL season

It seems like just yesterday we were all drafting our hearts out talking about sleepers and dreaming of the fantasy football playoffs

Wellthe playoffs are here and if you're not careful -- they will be over before they begin.

I also realized this week that despite my promises to scribe dailyit has been far too long since I have posted anything

When my friend and I created the site a few years backwe had hoped it would be a more regular thingbut sometimes life happens. And sometimes when you are a sports journalist the last thing you want to do iswell, write.

But for some reasonI am awake right now (at 1:53 am on a Wednesday night) and I have some new ideas for PPR Fantasy Football so what better time to share them.

I think the biggest mistake I ever made was trying to schedule content. What I mean by this is that there are a million fantasy ranking sites out there and there is no particular reason why I need to put out rankings for each and every position. Yes they will bring in search engine readers but beyond that why?

Rankings are a load of horse shit and if you haven't figured that out -- then you probably aren't doing so hot in the league standings

I like fantasy football rankings. I like them just about as much as college football rankings. They are fun. They can be usefulbut they are not to be trusted. 

Why? They are arbitrary

I am not criticizing people for creating them or using them as an information source. It can be a good thing to see how smart people rank fantasy football playersbut it is pure folly to use that as a gold-standard for choosing your lineup each week

Rankings are usually done one or two ways: either players are ranked based on how much said rater likes that player -- it may be based off matchuppast performancehealthwhatever

Another method is through projections. Or in other words: project each player's points for the coming week and rank them accordingly

But have you ever looked at those projections? ESPN probably has some of the smartest fantasy minds in the industry and their projections are total bull shit. I mean complete crap

When I am projected to win, I lose -- a guy is projected to do well and he sucks -- like WTF!

Example: Adrian Peterson -- 93 yards rushing27 receiving2 catches1 touchdown = 19 points.

There I made a projection. Is it that hard to project Adrian Peterson is going to have a good game? And how the F%#K CAN YOU PROJECT SOMEONE TO RUSH FOR 93 YARDS? 

I get that you can do things with average yards per carry and project attempts and look at opposing rush yards allowed by defenses and all other kinds of statistics to determine if AP will get 91 yards or 97 yards this week -- but at the end of the day it's still just some guy making it up

So that means that I am no longer going to try and do weekly fantasy football rankings

It's too timely and it's not something I can live up to. So what I am going to try to do is commit to writing a few posts a week or whenever I have time about fantasy football and yes mainly PPR Fantasy Football because that's what we play

Also the majority of today's fantasy leagues use some sort of point per reception format so PPR Fantasy Football is fantasy football.

Now I make still make some lists -- five players to start in Week 15 -- five players to steer clear of -- five sleepers -- five waiver adds -- other things of that nature. My buddy and I play will 5-10 teams a year and in doing so we use the majority of players out there

We know fantasy football -- know how to analyze it and how to think about it strategically. And if you think that sounds to serious then your stupid and you obviously don't get what's so awesome about fantasy football.

So I and we are going to pass along our knowledge to youin whatever way possiblewhenever possible while trying to provide a chuckle or two along the way.

But since I should probably pass along some fantasy football advice for the week here are a few rapid thoughts to chew on: (Imagine me saying this without taking a breath) start James White -- don't sit Calvin Johnson -- keep trusting Jameis Winston -- be patient with Randall Cobb -- keep rolling with Blake Bortles -- don't sleep on Theo Riddick and bench all your Colts not named Frank Gore

Drops the mic 

 

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    Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

It's that time of year again and by that I mean it's the fantasy football playoffs. For many leagues, the postseason got underway last week and now across the fantasy landscapenearly every league will be heading into the playoffs this week if they haven't already.

And of course fantasy owners are trying to determine who to play and what to do. Many will say "I'm going to stick with what got me here." And sometimes those owners are right. But other times -- they are dead wrong.

So one bit of advice I have for guys in the playoffs this week, is do not live by any one rule when it comes to setting your lineup. Be flexible -- play the matchups -- follow your gut. Sometimes in fantasy football we want to try and think everything through -- look at all these numbers, do all the research, agonize over every decision and in the end we get screwed anyways.

So don't be just a numbers guy -- that doesn't work. You need to play fantasy football with your heartyour mind and your soul. And yes I am dead serious.

Things sometimes get crazy at the end of the seasonguys like Thomas Rawls become dependable players and then break their ankle. Calvin Johnson who has been on a roll gets two points! TWO FREAKING POINTS!! IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!!!

Thanks again Calvin.

The point I am trying to make is that no player is beyond reproach and unless that someone is a truly elite talent you owe it to yourself and your team to look at all options.

Some think tinkering with your lineup is bad and sometimes it is. But other times -- it works out perfectly and could be the difference between winning and losing.

No one said fantasy football would be easyand trust me when I say it's not for the faint at heart. It feels awful to losewhen a simple decision you could have made would have meant total victory. But there is also is no rush quite like that surprise start you made ripping it up and leading your team to glory!

 What I am really saying is trust yourself not some rankings or ESPN analyst. The beauty of fantasy football is that anyone can be an expert or a moron on any given week. Hopefullywe can all become the former this week instead of the ladder -- but as we all know that's just not that way it works

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