Fantasy Football Strategy Tips and NFL Analysis

Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy PPR Week 15: Start Randall Cobb

December 18, 2015
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

There is no question that at times this seasonGreen Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb has been a disappointment

After a dominating fantasy season a year agoCobb has been pretty pedestrian in 2015. His yardage numbers and reception numbersare both decidedly down this season. One positiveis that he does have six touchdowns which isn't bad for a receiverbut he is not the high-end wide out many fantasy owners thought they were getting.

Yet as I have said beforethe thing about fantasy football is that you need to be flexible. Just because Cobb has struggled before doesn't mean that he will now. In factI believe he is going to have a great game this week and here's why:

Mike McCarthy is calling the plays again for the Packers and last week against the Cowboys he made a concerted effort to get the ball into Cobb's hands.

McCarthy knows that Cobb is his best pass-catcher and that if the Packers are going to be explosive offensively Cobb needs to be a part of that

The thing I liked about what McCarthy did is that he put Cobb back in the slot almost exclusively. He's not a great outside receiver -- he's just not. But he is outstanding in the slot and that's where he can dominate.

Cobb doesn't have a great matchup this week. The Raiders are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers and they have only surrendered seven touchdownswhich is actually fourth-best in the league.

But Cobb doesn't necessarily have to score a touchdown to get you points. If you have him in a PPR league he could easily get 20 points -- 10 receptions for 100 yards. He should also get a few carries out of the backfield but he hasn't scored in a few weeks so he's kinda due

All I'm saying is that if you own Cobb he should be in your lineup. I've just got a good feeling about him



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Written by: Chris Peterson

Why Fantasy Rankings Are Stupid; Thoughts for Week 15

December 17, 2015
Week 15 already starts tonight with Tampa Bay vs the Rams
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The first thing I thought before writing this was: I can't believe we have already reached Week 15 of the NFL season

It seems like just yesterday we were all drafting our hearts out talking about sleepers and dreaming of the fantasy football playoffs

Wellthe playoffs are here and if you're not careful -- they will be over before they begin.

I also realized this week that despite my promises to scribe dailyit has been far too long since I have posted anything

When my friend and I created the site a few years backwe had hoped it would be a more regular thingbut sometimes life happens. And sometimes when you are a sports journalist the last thing you want to do iswell, write.

But for some reasonI am awake right now (at 1:53 am on a Wednesday night) and I have some new ideas for PPR Fantasy Football so what better time to share them.

I think the biggest mistake I ever made was trying to schedule content. What I mean by this is that there are a million fantasy ranking sites out there and there is no particular reason why I need to put out rankings for each and every position. Yes they will bring in search engine readers but beyond that why?

Rankings are a load of horse shit and if you haven't figured that out -- then you probably aren't doing so hot in the league standings

I like fantasy football rankings. I like them just about as much as college football rankings. They are fun. They can be usefulbut they are not to be trusted. 

Why? They are arbitrary

I am not criticizing people for creating them or using them as an information source. It can be a good thing to see how smart people rank fantasy football playersbut it is pure folly to use that as a gold-standard for choosing your lineup each week

Rankings are usually done one or two ways: either players are ranked based on how much said rater likes that player -- it may be based off matchuppast performancehealthwhatever

Another method is through projections. Or in other words: project each player's points for the coming week and rank them accordingly

But have you ever looked at those projections? ESPN probably has some of the smartest fantasy minds in the industry and their projections are total bull shit. I mean complete crap

When I am projected to win, I lose -- a guy is projected to do well and he sucks -- like WTF!

Example: Adrian Peterson -- 93 yards rushing27 receiving2 catches1 touchdown = 19 points.

There I made a projection. Is it that hard to project Adrian Peterson is going to have a good game? And how the F%#K CAN YOU PROJECT SOMEONE TO RUSH FOR 93 YARDS? 

I get that you can do things with average yards per carry and project attempts and look at opposing rush yards allowed by defenses and all other kinds of statistics to determine if AP will get 91 yards or 97 yards this week -- but at the end of the day it's still just some guy making it up

So that means that I am no longer going to try and do weekly fantasy football rankings

It's too timely and it's not something I can live up to. So what I am going to try to do is commit to writing a few posts a week or whenever I have time about fantasy football and yes mainly PPR Fantasy Football because that's what we play

Also the majority of today's fantasy leagues use some sort of point per reception format so PPR Fantasy Football is fantasy football.

Now I make still make some lists -- five players to start in Week 15 -- five players to steer clear of -- five sleepers -- five waiver adds -- other things of that nature. My buddy and I play will 5-10 teams a year and in doing so we use the majority of players out there

We know fantasy football -- know how to analyze it and how to think about it strategically. And if you think that sounds to serious then your stupid and you obviously don't get what's so awesome about fantasy football.

So I and we are going to pass along our knowledge to youin whatever way possiblewhenever possible while trying to provide a chuckle or two along the way.

But since I should probably pass along some fantasy football advice for the week here are a few rapid thoughts to chew on: (Imagine me saying this without taking a breath) start James White -- don't sit Calvin Johnson -- keep trusting Jameis Winston -- be patient with Randall Cobb -- keep rolling with Blake Bortles -- don't sleep on Theo Riddick and bench all your Colts not named Frank Gore

Drops the mic 

 


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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Playoff Advice: Don't Be Afraid to Tinkle

December 16, 2015
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

It's that time of year again and by that I mean it's the fantasy football playoffs. For many leagues, the postseason got underway last week and now across the fantasy landscapenearly every league will be heading into the playoffs this week if they haven't already.

And of course fantasy owners are trying to determine who to play and what to do. Many will say "I'm going to stick with what got me here." And sometimes those owners are right. But other times -- they are dead wrong.

So one bit of advice I have for guys in the playoffs this week, is do not live by any one rule when it comes to setting your lineup. Be flexible -- play the matchups -- follow your gut. Sometimes in fantasy football we want to try and think everything through -- look at all these numbers, do all the research, agonize over every decision and in the end we get screwed anyways.

So don't be just a numbers guy -- that doesn't work. You need to play fantasy football with your heartyour mind and your soul. And yes I am dead serious.

Things sometimes get crazy at the end of the seasonguys like Thomas Rawls become dependable players and then break their ankle. Calvin Johnson who has been on a roll gets two points! TWO FREAKING POINTS!! IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!!!

Thanks again Calvin.

The point I am trying to make is that no player is beyond reproach and unless that someone is a truly elite talent you owe it to yourself and your team to look at all options.

Some think tinkering with your lineup is bad and sometimes it is. But other times -- it works out perfectly and could be the difference between winning and losing.

No one said fantasy football would be easyand trust me when I say it's not for the faint at heart. It feels awful to losewhen a simple decision you could have made would have meant total victory. But there is also is no rush quite like that surprise start you made ripping it up and leading your team to glory!

 What I am really saying is trust yourself not some rankings or ESPN analyst. The beauty of fantasy football is that anyone can be an expert or a moron on any given week. Hopefullywe can all become the former this week instead of the ladder -- but as we all know that's just not that way it works


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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football PPR: Vernon Davis Can be Top 10 TE After Broncos Trade

November 02, 2015
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

​There aren't a lot of times when talented Pro Bowlers like Vernon Davis change teams -- but that's exactly  what happened Monday, when the former No. 6 overall pick was traded to the Denver Broncos. 

The two-time Pro Bowl selection hasn't made much of an impact yet this season but that has more to do with injuries and Colin Kaepernick than anything else. 

And now that Davis is going to be catching passes from Peyton Manning for the rest of the season, he is, in my opinion, a viable starting Fantasy right end for the rest of the season. 

In four full games this season, Davis has averaged nine fantasy points per game. Not great numbers by any means, but he did get more than 60 yards twice and 47 yards another time. 

Those are numbers fantasy football owners can work with and with the talent that will surround Davis in Denver, there should be a lot of single coverage coming his way and that's a good thing for his fantasy production, especially with the way Manning likes to target tight ends. 

There are very few elite tight ends out there and if you are hurting at the position, take a shot on Davis who is finally healthy and caught four passes Sunday in a loss to the Rams. 

The former Terp is owned in just 15% of leagues on ESPN and few if any of the other tight ends available can offer top-10 upside, which Davis, if healthy, can. So pick him up and take a shot. Who knows the Vernon of old might suddnely appear, and if that happens, it would be a coup for the fantasy owners bold enough act quickly. 



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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy PPR Week 5 Sleeper: Willie Snead

October 08, 2015
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

​This is the time of year that fantasy football becomes a challenge. The strong and the smart survive. The weak...well they die off. 

The reason why the fantasy football men will soon be separated from the boys is because bye weeks and injuries are taking their toll and now depth is nearly as important as high-end talent. 

The key to building great depth is by good drafting. But, if you missed on picks in the draft, you need to find sleepers and diamonds in the rough. 

One guy who very could be that in Week 5 for you is Willie Snead of the New Orleans Saints. 

In four games, Snead has averaged 11 fantasy points per game and has scored 14 twice, including last week. 

Snead has been getting as many snaps as Marques Colston at Wide receiver and with Drew Brees as his quarterback, Snead should continue to produce. 

The Eagles matchup this week isn't great, but it's not bad either. Yet, the biggest reason why Snead should be in your lineup if you need a wide receiver is that he is getting targets and has an elite quarterback. 

Those two things make Snead a sneaky play in PPR leagues this week and beyond. 

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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football: Time to Buy Low on Andrew Luck

September 30, 2015
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

​There is really no debate that during the first three weeks of the fantasy football season, Andrew Luck has been among the NFL's biggest disappointments. 

Through three games, Luck has scored a total of just 41 points. He ranks 21st among quarterbacks and has a total of seven interceptions. 

And while some fantasy owners see a terrible start, which it is -- I see an opportunity to get an elite fantasy QB at a discount. 

Often times fantasy owners target players that are going off and having big games. Unfortunately, that is usually the worst time to try and make a deal. It's much smarter to buy low and aim high. 

The bottom line is that even though it's been a struggle for Luck, he still threw a pair of touchdown passes against the Titans and scored 18 points. He is one of the best passers and players in the NFL and he will get right, likely sooner than later. 

So if you need a QB target Luck. Especially if that owner has a need somewhere else and you can give him or her another option at the QB spot. Fantasy owners often think with their hearts as much as their heads and you should take advantage. 

Trading for Luck could be a risky proposition but if his owner is disgruntled with him and wants to go in another direction, the investment of a couple solid players could be well worth the price. 

Don't offer too much and make a deal you are comfortable with. If you get turned down oh well, at least you tried. And if you end up making a deal, you could be getting one of the top fantasy QBs on the market for the rest of the season. 


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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football PPR Rankings: Top-10 Tight Ends for Week 3

September 25, 2015
Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

So far this week at PPR Fantasy Football we have put out our quarterback, running back and wide receiver rankings -- now it's time for us to tackle the tight end position -- so here are 10 tight ends you should start this weekend in you fantasy football lineup:

1. Rob Gronkowski -- Gronk is as good as ever this season and has amassed 56 fantasy points in two games in point-per-reception formats. He should dominate again this week against the Jaguars.

2. Jimmy Graham -- I know that Graham struggled against Green Bay and caught just one pass for 10 yards. But he did catch a touchdown in Week 1 against the Rams and with the renewed focus in place this week, expect a breakout game at Qwest Field vs Chicago.

3. Greg Olsen -- The Carolina Panthers tight end has gotten off a slow start with just 15 fantasy points in two games. He had six catches for 70 yards last week and I think he will find pay dirt this week against the Saints.

4. Jason Witten -- No Tony Romo could be a problem for Witten but I actually think Brandon Weeden can play well enough to not impact Witten's value. And with Dez Bryant out -- he is the No. 2 option in the passing game.

5. Travis Kelce -- Kelce only had nine points last week after posting a 28-point outing in the season-opener and he faces a Green Bay team that held Graham in check last week but, the Chiefs have to throw it to someone and Kelce is as good an option as any.

6. Tyler Eifert -- Eifert has three touchdowns in two games to go along with 13 receptions for 153 yards. He is the second option in the Bengals passing attack but faces a tough matchup against the Ravens who give up the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

7. Eric Ebron -- Back-to-back games with 15 points and a touchdown in each has vaulted Ebron into a legitimate option of at tight end this season. He was a first-round pick a year ago and is starting to show why.

8. Heath Miller -- Through two games Miller has been consistent and trustworthy. He had 15 in Week 1 and 11 in Week 2 and with Martavius Bryant sidelined right now -- Miller is taking advantage of some extra targets.

9. Martellus Bennett -- Bennett had 16 points against Green Bay and then eight a week ago against the Cardinals. Seattle is actually not great at defending tight ends -- even with Kam Chancellor back this week. But with Jimmy Clausen playing quarterbackexpectations must be tempered. Yet, tight end is weak this year and Bennett is still a better option than most.

10. Kyle Rudolph -- Rudolph has averaged 12 points through two games and faces a Chargers defense that has allowed two touchdowns already this season to opposing tight ends. Rudolph won't put up great numbers if he doesn't score -- but you could do a lot worse

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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football: 3 Takeaways from Giants vs Redskins

September 25, 2015
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

As  a fan of the New York Giants it was great to see big blue finally play a four quarter football game and as a result -- the Giants pounded the Washington Redskins Thursday night 32-21. Yet in terms of the important thing -- fantasy football there were a number of takeaways we had from the Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football.Here are the three biggest from last night according to the PPR Experts:

1. Eli doesn't choke  - 

The first takeaway is the fact that Eli Manning put together his best fantasy performance of the season. Manning finished the game with 279 yards passing to go along with two touchdowns -- and MIRACULOUSLY had no turnovers. We tweeted yesterday that Manning would be a stud and he came through with 18 points. At this point, Manning may not be an elite fantasy starter but Odell Beckham Jr, Rueben Randle and soon Victor Cruz to throw the ball to -- his numbers should only get better and better. So if you have Eli as your starter or as part of a weekly QB debate -- you should feel good after last night.


2.  Holy hell Reuben Randle -

I have been waiting for Randle to have a good game this year and it finally happened last night as he hauled in seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. Now I would be really excited as a fantasy owner if Victor Cruz wasn't about to return -- but it's still a good sign that Randle finally put together a good performance. At this point he may even be more talented than Cruz. Who knows if Cruz will ever duplicate the production he had early on in the league -- so Randle is a wide receiver to keep and eye on -- especially if Cruz disappoints or can't stay healthy.

3. RB controversy in Redskin park?

The other big news from last night is something we already told you was going to happen -- Matt Jones is inching closer and closer to being the No. 1 running back in Washington. Jones did carry the ball just 10 times for 38 yards last night while Alfred Morris carried it only six times for 19 yards. Jones likely would have seen the rock more if the Skins weren't getting trampled in the second half and right now he just looks superior to Morris. The fumble by Jones hurt as did the lack of receptions but as far as toting the pigskin -- expect Jones to do more of that in the coming weeks -- so if you need a back he's the guy you want to try and claim.





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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football PPR Rankings: Top 20 Wide Receivers for Week 3

September 24, 2015

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Week 3 WR PPR Ranks​:

1. Antonio Brown vs Rams - Brown is averaging 32 points per game in PPR formats and St. Louis isn't going to stop him. 

2. Odell Beckham Jr. vs Redskins - He was big last week and last season beat Washington 3 touchdowns. 

3. Julio Jones vs Cowboys - Julio is averaging over 30 fantasy points and is a must play every week. 

4.  Randall Cobb vs Chiefs - Cobb scored 19 last week against Seattle and should keep putting up numbers as Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 target. 

5. Demaryius Thomas vs Lions - Detroit has struggled stopping the pass and Thomas should take advantage of a good matchup. 

6. A.J Green vs Ravens - Baltimore is 30th in points allowed to WRs so Green should have a field day. 

7. Calvin Johnson vs Broncos - Calvin broke out last week scoring 24 points. If Stafford is healthy, Calvin should produce. 

8. Emmanuel Sanders vs Lions - See what was said about Demaryius Thomas. 

9. Julian Edelman vs Jags - Edelman has been dominant in PPR leagues with an average of 26.5 fantasy points and has a favorable matchup this week. 

10. Jarvis Landry vs Bills - Landry had 39 points in Weeks 1 and 2 and looks like a big-time receiver. 

11. Brandon Marshall vs Eagles - Marshall has been a big steal for fantasy owners and after 13 cathces and 41 points in two games he is proving to be a low-end No. 1. 

12. Larry Fitzgerald vs 49ers - Fitz had a 3-touchdown game last week and against a weak Niners secondary could have another big week. 

13. Keenan Allen vs Vikings - Great Week 1. Sucked week 2. Week 3 should be somewhere in the middle. 

14. DeAndre Hopkins vs Tampa Bay - Love Hopkins. Hate his QB. But Tampa is a good matchup.  He's a good WR2. 

15. Donte Moncrief vs Titans - Montcrief has 13 receptions, two scores and 41 points in two games. He is a solid option against the Titans. 

16. Amari Cooper vs Browns - Joe Haden may cause Cooper problems, but I still like him this week. 

17. Eric Decker vs Eagles - Decker is benefiting a lot from both Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick. What does that say about Geno Smith. 

18. Travis Benjamin vs Raiders - A new QB but a good matchup means I would take the risk. You can't leave him on the bench now can you? 

19. Golden Gate vs Broncos - He has 18 targets in two games but just 20 points. He doesn't have an easy matchup but with volume alone he's worth it. 

20. Vincent Jackson vs Texans - Houston gave up two TDs to receivers against Carolina and Jackson is way better tah any wideout the Panthers have. 


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Written by: Chris Peterson

Fantasy Football PPR Rankings: Top 20 Running Backs for Week 3

September 24, 2015
Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 3 PPR RB Rankings

1. Le'Veon Bell Steelers vs Rams - Bell is an absolute stud and you shouldn't wait to get him in your lineup.

2. Adrian Peterson vs Chargers - AP hasn't found the end zone yet -- but he will this week.

3. Marshawn Lynch vs Bears - Seattle is going to destroy the Bears and so will Marshawn.

4. Jamal Charles vs Packers - Green Bay has been up and down vs run and Charles is a great receiver too.

5. Matt Forte vs Seattle -- He is questionable but as long as he's out there he will score plenty of fantasy points.

6. Latavius Murray vs Browns -- Murray is averaging 16 points per game and has more than 80 yards in two games

7. Jonathan Stewart vs Saints -- Stewart has disappointed so far but this is a dream matchup especially if Brees it out.

8. LeSean McCoy vs Dolphins -- Shady needs to get rolling but this week will be tough against a stout Dolphins defense but whether it's running or receiving he will get his.

9. Joseph Randle vs Falcons -- Someone needs to pick up the slack in Dallas and my bet is on Randle.

10. Carlos Hyde vs Cardinals -- If Hyde was 100 percent healthy he'd be in my Top-5.

11. Demarco Murray vs Jets -- the Jets def is tough but Murray will at least catch enough passes to be worth it.

12. Justin Forsett vs Bengals -- Forsett is averaging just 10 PPG so far -- but has four catches a game and should continue that trend against Cincy.

13. Dion Lewis vs Jags -- Believe it or not I think Lewis is for real. The Pats love pass-catching backs and Lewis has 10 catches for 130 yards in two games. He is averaging 19 points a game.

14. Mark Ingram vs Panthers -- The Carolina defense is tough and if Brees can't play -- Ingram could struggle.

15. Lamar Miller vs Bills -- Miller hasn't been bad but with just eight fantasy points per game he hasn't been good either. But he is due for a solid game against Buffalo which gave up big numbers to Dion Lewis a week ago.

16. Matt Jones vs Giants -- Honestly I think he is going to overtake Alfred Morris in Washington. He had 23 touches a week ago and three catches for 23 yards. Morris has stones for hands

17. Chris Ivory vs Eagles -- Ivory hardly catches any passes but he will get carries and is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. He has a decent matchup but don't expect huge numbers

18. Melvin Gordon vs MIN -- I love this kid. He showed explosiveness last week and had 98 total yards. It's only a matter of time before he breaks a long run for a touchdown

19. Eddie Lacy or James Starks vs KC -- Whichever player starts is good enough to be in your lineup but with the dreaded Monday night start -- it takes lineup decisions much more difficult.

20. T.J. Yeldon vs Pats -- Yeldon has 10 points in two games and three catches in each. He's the bell cow in Jacksonville and a solid RB2 going forward in all formats

Note: Check out our sleepers and insights pieces this week for more information on who to play at running back


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